By Dee at Profitmaxxer · Published 8 October 2026 · Data from our live scanner across 12 poker networks
A poker overlay happens when a tournament's guaranteed prize pool (the GTD) is bigger than the money the players actually paid in. The poker site has promised the guarantee, so it pays the gap itself. That top-up goes into the prize pool and is shared by everyone who registered. Nobody had to pay for it.
Overlays aren't rare. Our scanner has logged $57.4 million in overlay over 207 days, about $277,000 a day on average, across 15,591 different tournaments on 12 networks (live totals are on our stats page). Most players never see that money because they don't know an overlay is forming until registration has already closed.
This guide covers how the overlay math works, how much an overlay is worth per entry, how to find overlays before late registration closes, and where the edge stops.
Every tournament buy-in is split in two. In a $10 + $1 tournament, $10 goes into the prize pool and $1 is the site's fee (rake). Only the prize-pool part counts toward the guarantee.
The formula:
Overlay = Guarantee − (Entries × prize-pool part of the buy-in)
If that number is positive, there's an overlay. If it's zero or negative, the guarantee has been met and there's no overlay. Re-entries count as extra entries. With bounty formats, check whether the guarantee includes the bounty portion, because sites handle this differently.
Sites set guarantees high on purpose because big GTD numbers sell tournaments. Off-peak start times, niche formats, smaller networks and crowded schedules mean some of those guarantees get missed, and every time one does, there's an overlay.
The tournament below is a made-up example to show the math. It is not a real event.
Step 1: Money collected. 380 × $10 = $3,800.
Step 2: Overlay. $5,000 − $3,800 = $1,200, which is 24% of the guarantee.
Step 3: Prize money per entry. $5,000 ÷ 380 = $13.16. Each entry costs $11 in total and buys an average share of $13.16 in prize money.
Step 4: The edge from the overlay alone. $13.16 − $11 = +$2.16 per entry, or about +19.6% ROI, before skill. A break-even player becomes a winning player in this spot, and a winning player's normal edge gets added on top.
Step 5: Account for late registration. Now say 60 more players register in the last few minutes, bringing entries to 440. Collected becomes $4,400, the overlay drops to $600, and each entry is worth $5,000 ÷ 440 = $11.36. The overlay edge falls to +$0.36 per entry (about +3.3%). The overlay is still there, but it's much smaller.
That last step is the part most guides skip. An overlay isn't confirmed until registration closes. The players who profit most from overlays are the ones who check the numbers in the final minutes of late registration, not hours earlier. Our free overlay calculator runs these numbers for any tournament.
This works on one site with a few tournaments. It falls apart quickly at scale: dozens of lobbies, hundreds of guaranteed events and late registration windows closing all day across time zones. While you're checking one lobby, an overlay is closing on another.
By raw count, 888poker, GGPoker and WPT Global have produced the most overlay observations in our data. You can see the per-site breakdown on the live stats page or read which poker sites have the most overlays.
Profitmaxxer does the manual method for you. It reads every lobby across 12 poker networks every 30 seconds, works out the overlay and the edge per entry, and sends you a Telegram alert while there's still time to register. You choose the buy-in range, formats and minimum edge, so you only get alerts for spots you would actually play.
Overlay and late registration are closely linked. Late registration is when overlays shrink, because every new entry fills part of the gap. It's also the best time to decide, because the entry count is close to final.
Registering late has a second benefit. You skip the early levels, and you already know whether the overlay held. The cost is a shorter stack compared with the blinds. A practical rule: if the overlay is large and late registration is about to close, entering is usually correct. If the overlay is small and there's plenty of time left, expect it to disappear. Our late reg calculator and the guide to late registration EV go into the timing in more detail.
Profitmaxxer scans 12 poker networks every 30 seconds and sends overlay and late reg alerts to Telegram. Start with a 7-day free trial. Seats are capped at 30, so new signups join a waitlist once it's full.
Start the 7-day free trial on TelegramIs a poker overlay really free money?
The overlay itself is money nobody in the field paid for, so it adds positive expected value to every entry. You still have to play the tournament, so it's an edge that pays off over many events, not a guaranteed profit in any single one.
How do I calculate a poker overlay?
Overlay = guarantee − (entries × the prize-pool part of the buy-in). To get the value per entry, divide the guarantee by the number of entries and compare that to the full buy-in including the fee.
When should I check for an overlay?
In the final minutes of late registration. Earlier numbers often overstate the overlay because late entries keep arriving until registration closes.
Can you make money from overlays without being a great player?
A big enough overlay can make a tournament +EV even for a break-even player, because the extra prize money is shared across the whole field. Skill adds to that edge, and variance is still high.
Do poker sites publish overlays?
No. You have to work them out from the lobby, or use a scanner that does it for you across many sites at once.
How often do overlays happen?
Every day. Across the 12 networks we scan, our scanner averages about $277,000 in overlay a day. Live totals are on the stats page.